How Senate Republicans Are Using Fake Polls to Justify Bombing Iran
Two months ago, a mysterious polling firm called GrayHouse Analytics appeared in Washington. Its purpose? To fabricate the illusion of overwhelming public support for a U.S. war with Iran.
Israel has never been this unpopular.
In June 2025, Pew Research surveyed 24 countries. The verdict was overwhelming: Israel is deeply unpopular worldwide. Only three countries—Kenya, Nigeria, and India—expressed net positive views.
In the U.S., the trend is even more dramatic. Support for Israel has collapsed across all demographics, reaching historic lows. A majority of Americans (53%) now express a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion of Israel. This marks an 11-point increase in unfavorable views of Israel from 2022 to 2025.
Among Americans under 30, support has all but vanished:
In 2018, 65% of Americans aged 18 to 34 supported Israel. In 2025, that figure has collapsed to just 29%.
67% of U.S. 18-24 year olds, regardless of political orientation, believe "Jews are oppressors and should be treated as oppressor.’’
55% of Americans support a Palestinian state.
18-year old registered voters are now 5 times more likely to say that they have an unfavorable view of the Jewish people than 65-year olds.
According to The Economist poll from last week, just 16% of Americans support U.S. involvement in the Israel–Iran conflict.
This matches another poll from the Democracy Institute, who just reported that 64% of Trump voters oppose going to war against Iran.
Even Charlie Kirk—one of the most aggressive pro-Israel influencers, and a good barometer for where the MAGA base stands—ran a Twitter poll with nearly 500,000 votes. The result? 90% opposed war with Iran.
The pattern is clear: war with Iran is wildly unpopular, even among Republicans.
GrayHouse Analytics: Fake Polling, Real Consequences
So why is the Senate GOP promoting absurd polls this week from ‘‘GrayHouse’’ that claim:
“Only 10% of Republicans oppose Israel’s strikes against Iran”
‘‘79% of Republicans support the United States providing offensive weapons to Israel’’
‘‘95% of Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of foreign policy’’
That’s not just implausible… It’s absurd.
In survey research, questions that crack 80% agreement are jokingly called “Mom and apple pie” questions—because loving your mom and loving apple pie are the only things Americans reliably agree on.
To understand how implausible these numbers are, consider what Americans don’t overwhelmingly agree on…
Is the Earth round? (YouGov, 2018) — 84%
Do you support democracy? (Pew, 2017) — 78%
Do you like puppies? (Morning Consult, 2023) — 87%
And yet we’re supposed to believe that bombing Iran polls higher than round Earth or puppies?
Even among Republicans, there is never near-unanimous agreement:
41% support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants (Pew, 2024)
57% want abortion mostly or always illegal (Pew, 2023)
68% say their federal taxes are too high (Gallup, 2023)
56% supported the 2023 GOP tax bill (Quinnipiac)
Trump’s approval rating among Republicans has also dropped 10 points in the last month (HarrisX/Harvard, June 2025)—yet somehow 95% still support his foreign policy?
The latest HarrisX/Harvard poll, conducted between June 11-12 among 2,097 registered voters, shows his approval among Republican voters has dropped 10 points since last month—from a net +76 to +66.
…
Overall, fewer GOP voters now believe the country is on the right track under his leadership, dropping from 76 percent to 71 percent.
Fake Polls as Psychological Warfare
These aren’t innocent mistakes. Fake polls are tools of psychological warfare meant to demoralize dissenters, suppress anti-war sentiment, and manufacture a false consensus.
“Our rulers for more than a century have relied on public relations, polls, focus groups... not to hear what we want, but to learn how best to sell us what we don’t.”
– Gore Vidal, Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace
“Polls become propaganda when they are hyped and selectively reported to support preordained conclusions.”
– Norman Solomon, War Made Easy: How Presidents and Pundits Keep Spinning Us to Death
“The mass media serve as a system […] to inculcate individuals with the values, beliefs, and codes of behavior that will integrate them into … institutional structures … In a world of concentrated wealth … to fulfil this role requires systematic propaganda.”
— Noam Chomsky, Manufacturing Consent
This tactic isn’t new:
2002: Bush officials cited unsourced polling that Iraqis would welcome U.S. troops as “liberators.” The war killed hundreds of thousands.
2011: Obama officials leaned on dubious polling to justify regime change in Libya.
2018: Pro-Israel groups inflated support for moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem.
2022: Western media circulated unverifiable polling from Ukraine and suppressed growing public fatigue with the war.
Now in 2025, GrayHouse's polling is being used by outlets like the Daily Wire and Free Beacon to fabricate support for war with Iran.
"President Trump has handled this perfectly, and that’s why his approval is at a record high," Sen. Tom Cotton (R., Ark.) told the Washington Free Beacon. "Republican voters are united with Trump to support Israel’s campaign to end the Iranian nuclear threat.’’
Related: GrayHouse does "work" for a nonprofit ‘‘supporting’’ Tom Cotton.
This wasn't even the Free Beacon’s first time shilling an obviously fake GrayHouse poll. Six months ago, they used GrayHouse data to claim that a "majority of American voters support congressional efforts to sanction the International Criminal Court" in order to "protect Israel."
As if the majority of voters even know what the ICC is.
This is pure narrative laundering.
Methodology
GrayHouse’s methodology is laughable. Their so-called “national poll” was based on a text-to-web approach—spam texts with links to online surveys. No verification. Minimal engagement. Their “national poll” was little more than 300 spam texts and a few answered calls.
Their sample?
83% white
64% with no college degree
7% under age 30
That last number alone disqualifies the poll. In any serious survey, 18–29-year-olds make up at least 20–25% of respondents. Excluding young people—the most anti-war demographic—skews results to favor hawkish narratives.
The questions themselves are rigged to e.g. frame Iran as the aggressor:
“Do you support Israel’s military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities?”
“Should the U.S. help Israel defend itself?”
“Iran is an existential threat to the West.”
None of the questions include non-interventionist or diplomatic options, such as:
“The U.S. should stay out of the Middle East conflict.”
“Israel and Iran should resolve this diplomatically without U.S. involvement.”
The design is intentional. Every question presumes intervention. The only debate is over the scale of involvement.
Who’s Behind GrayHouse?
GrayHouse was founded in 2022 by a GOP operative named Landon Wall, but didn’t exist publicly until April 2025. Its Wix-built website was registered anonymously just eight weeks ago. Its social media accounts were all created in April 2025.
GrayHouse appears to consist of just two people—Landon Wall and one intern.
In 2025, they moved to D.C. after reportedly receiving a seven-figure investment from conservative donors.
Ask yourself: Who funds a polling firm with no track record, launches it in an election year, and feeds it war messaging that perfectly aligns with Likud party talking points?
One of their few public clients is the Taxpayers Protection Alliance, who needed a poll showing Americans oppose credit card regulations. GrayHouse obliged: “77% oppose regulating Visa/Mastercard.”
When pressed on Twitter, Wall accused me and my friend of misinformation, deleted his tweet, then blocked me.
“GrayHouse conducted a national poll with a mixed methodology of 450 registered voters who report to have voted for Trump in 2024. Chris [Menahan] believes our poll was framed in a biased way, which I dispute.”
Wall previously consulted for J.L. Partners, a British firm notorious for churning out pro-Israel polls used by News Corp (e.g., the New York Post, Wall Street Journal).
One of my sources asked Landon if he was affiliated with J&L, and he responded affirmatively: "... [I] did consult for them on their US methodology for about 2 years which ended at the start of this year. But only worked when there was a mixed mode aspect to the methodology. Their recent poll was a complete coincidence with ours and I have no idea who funded theirs and I did not work on it."
The founder of J&L Partners, James Johnson, is strongly pro-Israel and manufactures polls concluding that ‘‘Americans overwhelmingly back ground invasion and full occupation of Gaza’’ and that ‘‘Israel’s war is America’s war.’’
Last week, J.L. and GrayHouse released nearly identical pro-war polls.
The New York Post ran a headline based on them:
The Wall Street Journal then relied on polling from both J.L. and GrayHouse for a full-page spread branding anti-interventionists as “misguided isolationists.” The establishment conservative response to any dissenting view on Israel has been to gaslight, smear, and dismiss, exactly how liberals treated COVID skeptics.
This op-ed was pushed by Vice President Mike Pence to support bombing Iran.
The Stakes: The Death of MAGA
In 2011–2013, Donald Trump warned that Obama would “start a war with Iran to get elected.”
In 2015, he gutted Jeb Bush onstage over the Iraq War, saying it was a “big, fat mistake.” That moment broke the neocon hold on the GOP. MAGA was born as an anti-war, anti-establishment revolt.
‘‘Obviously the war in Iraq was a big fat mistake … we spent $2 trillion thousands of lives we should have never been in Iraq we have destabilized the Middle East.’’
He kept up this anti-interventionist rhetoric well into 2019, declaring that, ‘‘GOING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE WORST DECISION EVER MADE.’’
In 2024, Trump ran explicitly as the “peace president.” He said in his inauguration speech that his foreign policy would “bring a new spirit of unity to a world that has been angry, violent and unpredictable.” Now? The same MAGA base that voted for peace is being tricked into cheering war with Iran.
They lied us into Iraq. Now they’re lying us into Iran. But this time, the public isn’t buying it. If Trump drags us into another conflict—on behalf of a foreign power, no less—he won’t just betray that legacy. He’ll destroy it.
This isn’t 2003. Americans don’t want another war in the Middle East. They want peace, borders, and prosperity at home.
So let the bombers fly. Let the propagandists churn out their fake polls. Let the Free Beacon scream that “the base supports it.”
They’re wrong.
When the dust settles—when the body bags return and gas hits $8 a gallon—voters will ask: who lied to us this time? And why did we believe them again?
BREAKING NEWS
Less than an hour ago, Trump announced that he bombed Iran:
Bill Ackman called for “a bomber or two for a few days to finish off an enemy’s nuclear capability.”
Well, Ackman got his bombers.
So, is he satisfied now?
Will he finally shut up?
Or is this just the beginning?
The next 72 hours will define the future of the GOP—and possibly the country.
Will we repeat 2003, or learn from it?
My grim prediction is that soon the neocon line will be begging for boots on the ground, and anyone who predicted that bombing will escalate to boots on the ground will be smeared as a lunatic isolationist.
No war with Iran!
Decouple from Israel who draws its pawns into world war!
I strongly suspect the polling for Gulf War 1.0 and later 2.0 was all fabricated.
I haven't trusted polling since my teens. It always gives the elite what they want. Curious fact, that.