Polymarket Prediction: Will inflation be 0.4% or more from April to May?

Inflation is in the CPI of the beholder

It is with great humility that I am wading into the world of prediction markets by making my first forecast! I say “with great humility” because I am terrified of getting it wrong and looking foolish: predicting headline inflation from month-to-month is basically a crapshoot due to the sheer amount of noise involved. As Kenneth Galbraith would say, “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” That being said, part of being a gambler involves being vulnerable and going out on a limb — it’s not gambling unless it hurts when you lose! — so here goes nothing.