Why did so many academics push the line that epidemics grow exponentially contrary to the prior art from 1927?
Exponential growth breaks realizability on its way to infinity, is entirely predictable and once on you cannot get off unless there is some contrived event in the generating equation. Epidemics grow between zero and exponentially according to the logit-normal distribution with expected value equal to the growth term in the standard SIR model.
Hey hey for the Econ Journal Watch reference! Always a good place to see some shoddy work get ripped up.
Thanks as always for writing these up, Karl!
Timmons looks like Governor John Ratcliffe from Disney's Pocahontas
Why did so many academics push the line that epidemics grow exponentially contrary to the prior art from 1927?
Exponential growth breaks realizability on its way to infinity, is entirely predictable and once on you cannot get off unless there is some contrived event in the generating equation. Epidemics grow between zero and exponentially according to the logit-normal distribution with expected value equal to the growth term in the standard SIR model.